Research

 Trade Fragmentation, Inflationary Pressures and Monetary Policy   (with Jenny Chan and Silvana Tenreyro) Revise and Resubmit - Journal of International Economics 

Abstract: How does trade fragmentation affect inflationary pressures? What is the response of monetary policy needed to sustain inflation at target? To answer these questions, we develop a heterogeneous agent, open-economy model featuring imperfect international risk-sharing. The model captures both the demand and supply side effects of fragmentation. It illustrates how the impact of fragmentation on inflationary pressures and the appropriate policy response depends not only on the direct effect of higher import prices on supply but, crucially, on how aggregate demand adjusts in response to lower real incomes and productivity stemming from fragmentation.

Coverage: Bracing for a More Inflationary World, by R. G. Rajan,  Between a Shock and a Hard Place: Trade Fragmentation and Monetary Policy − speech by Swati Dhingra, ECB Report of the IRC Workstream on Trade Fragmentation: Navigating a Fragmenting Global Trading System, ECB Monetary Policy Strategy Assessment 2025: A Strategic View on the Economic and Inflation Environment in the Euro Area, The Supply Side Demands More Attention − speech by Megan Greene

Other versions: BIS Working Paper, Bank of England Staff Working Paper

Presented:  23rd BIS Annual Conference*, MMF joint workshop of the Macro and Finance Research Networks, 27th Annual DNB Research Conference*, 25th IWH-CIREQ-GW-BOKERI Macroeconometric Workshop: International Macroeconomics, ESSIM 2025*, SED 2025*,  5th Sailing the Macro Workshop, 2nd LBS Alumni Conference, 

 The Macroeconomics of International Remittance Flows (with Aditya Soenarjo) [Draft coming soon!]

Funding: STICERD, Wheeler Institute for Business and Development

Abstract: This article documents five facts regarding the micro-level patterns of international remittance flows. We leverage new administrative data from a large global money transfer operator (MTO). First, we find that remittance senders use their local currency as the reference currency as opposed to the recipient's local currency. Second, we find that an individual sender's remittance amount doesn't change frequently. Therefore, remittance flows are sticky in the sender's currency. Third, we find that on average, a given sender has multiple recipients, which tend to be located in one country. Fourth, we find that the recipient's local currency is the most common receiving currency, but the U.S. dollar is a prominent receiving currency in some Emerging Markets. Fifth, we find that during the pandemic, there was an increase in the number of transfers and volume of remittance flows through the MTO and this was driven in equal parts by existing and new senders to the platform. 

Presented:  LBS, 4th Sailing the Macro Workshop

 Another Brick in the Wall: Education, House Prices and Segregation Dynamics in London (with Andrea Galeotti and Paolo Surico)

 *  Presentations by co-authors